Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.049947 0.056828 0.064526 0.073818 0.084780 0.097366 0.113004
2025-12-14 0.038901 0.047203 0.057256 0.070455 0.087526 0.109132 0.138986
2025-12-21 0.029776 0.038042 0.048713 0.063745 0.084780 0.113798 0.157995
2025-12-28 0.025007 0.033548 0.045271 0.062967 0.089775 0.130211 0.198590
2026-01-04 0.021686 0.030449 0.043197 0.063767 0.097481 0.153197 0.258465
2026-01-11 0.018758 0.027434 0.040736 0.063569 0.103896 0.176757 0.330814
2026-01-18 0.016357 0.024830 0.038465 0.063271 0.110353 0.203287 0.423937
2026-01-25 0.014101 0.022105 0.035542 0.061280 0.113433 0.225235 0.522266
2026-02-01 0.012078 0.019463 0.032323 0.058101 0.113494 0.241620 0.620607
2026-02-08 0.010820 0.017949 0.030853 0.058015 0.120262 0.277111 0.803169
2026-02-15 0.009776 0.016662 0.029589 0.058105 0.127702 0.318820 1.050053
2026-02-22 0.008966 0.015690 0.028773 0.059012 0.137693 0.374087 1.418782
2026-03-01 0.008210 0.014737 0.027885 0.059705 0.148006 0.439211 1.944657
2026-03-08 0.007391 0.013549 0.026317 0.058443 0.152687 0.490251 2.509844
2026-03-15 0.006452 0.012000 0.023739 0.054095 0.146751 0.499286 2.856843
2026-03-22 0.005958 0.011311 0.022965 0.054303 0.155621 0.577305 3.930550
2026-03-29 0.005597 0.010853 0.022643 0.055693 0.169421 0.692588 5.800933
2026-04-05 0.005217 0.010307 0.022029 0.056130 0.180326 0.807965 8.336666
2026-04-12 0.004868 0.009786 0.021395 0.056377 0.190956 0.937678 12.084145
2026-04-19 0.004481 0.009133 0.020332 0.055050 0.194739 1.033215 16.263052
2026-04-26 0.004085 0.008416 0.019004 0.052575 0.192596 1.089087 20.398014
2026-05-03 0.003844 0.008037 0.018509 0.052762 0.203055 1.259203 30.836053
2026-05-10 0.003630 0.007699 0.018073 0.053063 0.214550 1.463388 48.357791